Tech Scrubs' 2025 Predictions (Part 2/2)

Hello and welcome back!

Our first predictions piece (check it out here) definitely hit a nerve. We heard from founders reimagining care journeys, doctors becoming warmer towards tech, and investors trying to spot the next big shift. One thing became crystal clear through all these conversations – we're at the beginning of healthcare's most transformative chapter.

The argument to build in healthcare has never been more compelling with advancements in tech accelerating alongside increased govt focus + investment. 2024 was just the warm-up. So read on for Part 2 - where the story gets even more interesting.

1. AI Exceeds Expectations: From relying on AI to summarize 20 page health reports to researching particular conditions — as LLMs improve, users will find their own use cases to understand their health better. Now, with ChatGPT’s latest release, users can now screenshare the information on the Health app or a report and ask it questions using their voice. Its like having a 24/7 doctor on call. While this will never eliminate the need for doctors, it will transform the doctor-patient dynamic, with patients arriving better informed and prepared for consultations. All in all, we anticipate this will lessen the load on the already overburdened healthcare system and allow those who need care the most to receive it.

2. New Wave of Healthcare Tourism: Over the past decade, India has positioned itself as a provider of high-quality medical services at affordable costs, attracting medical tourists from around the world. Govt initiatives like e-medical visas and improving healthcare infrastructure are attracting more international patients with 1 in 5 tourists coming for medical reasons. Complex procedures such as cardiac surgery, organ transplants, and cancer treatments can be up to 80% cheaper in India than in the US or Europe. For instance, heart bypass surgery that costs about $130,000 in the US can be done for about $7,000 in India. Similarly, a liver transplant that would cost approximately $300,000 is available for about $45,000 here. Premium patient centric experiences will attract both those looking for conventional + alternative treatments. Maybe even packaging it as a vacation since tourists traveling for medical purposes are biased towards going to cities they’d like to soak in the culture of.

   

   cost of ailments around the world; Source: CRISIL research

3. Eldercare Tech 2.0: The eldercare sector is set for significant growth as millennials inherit substantial wealth and prioritize their parents' care. With eldercare market almost doubling between 2020 to 2050 from 153M to 350M and govt initiatives like SAGE (Seniorcare Ageing Growth Engine) - companies experimenting now will be well positioned to reap the benefits when time comes. And the innovation isn't just in creating new technologies, but in developing solutions that complement existing care structures. Opportunities lie in the untapped potential of tier 2 and tier 3 cities, where demand for eldercare facilities is expected to outstrip supply.

4. AI Companions: We’ll see AI companions emerge for various use cases - self-managing chronic conditions to building emotional resilience. Some will be features and others could have potential to be standalone products. These digital assistants can be built to monitor vital signs, remind patients to take their medication, and even suggest lifestyle changes based on continuous data analysis. For example, an AI companion for diabetes management could track blood glucose levels in real-time, provide diet recommendations, and alert the user to potential health risks before they become severe. Success will depend on several factors, including accuracy, user trust, and data privacy and developing these tools to be intuitive and interact naturally with users will be crucial for their adoption.

5. Climate & Health Converge: It might seem like as consumers / users, there’s little we can do without government intervention. But even the little we can do, has the ability to improve the lives of billions. Unlike lifestyle-related health issues, environmental threats affect populations indiscriminately, spurring demand for protective solutions and preventive healthcare measures. We're seeing this play out in real time: air quality apps are becoming as common as weather apps in major Asian cities, with downloads increasing 300% during pollution seasons. Hospitals are integrating air quality data into patient care protocols, especially for respiratory conditions. The market for personal environmental health products is exploding - from smart masks that monitor air quality to portable air purifiers for offices and cars. We anticipate that this heightened awareness and need will create a new market of protection technologies with health metrics as a system of efficacy measure.

   

   Google search trends (India region) for “air purifier”

6. Home Healthcare Expands: Home healthcare's expansion is being driven by both by aging demographics and tech advances. Post-COVID acceptance of decentralized care are making home-based services more viable and preferred, supported by growing remote monitoring capabilities. Companies are innovating with comprehensive care packages that combine traditional nursing care with digital health monitoring creating a new standard for personalized healthcare delivery which is cost-effective and culturally aligned.

7. Players See Value in Consolidation: The healthcare industry is moving toward ecosystem-based models, with larger players acquiring smaller entities to create comprehensive healthcare platforms. This consolidation trend is driven by the need for integrated services, data sharing capabilities, and economies of scale. Fortis has probably been the most aggressive here with its acquisition of SRL Diagnostics and Escorts Heart Institute, to broaden its healthcare delivery capabilities. Other participants in the chess games include Apollo acquiring Artemis & Sanjeevani, Max acquiring Alexis and Sahara. Smaller (underfunded) players will find it more viable to sell to bigger players benefitting the ecosystem on the whole.

8. Digital Data Unlock: Even though we as a population of 1bn have the potential to have the most amount of data, due to our lack of documentation we fail to put it to meaningful use. The National Health Authority's data shows that digitized records are leading to better clinical outcomes through improved coordination between healthcare providers and more accurate treatment histories. The real potential lies in the ability to analyze this data at scale - patterns of disease progression, treatment efficacy, and public health trends can now be studied with unprecedented detail. And the collection and use of this data will benefit all stakeholders:

   • Patients: Create a more empowered community of patients that can better interact and understand their digitised data

   • Providers: Spend less time on collecting and connecting the dots from data + ABDM is already handing out a Rs. 20 incentive per digitized health record to doctors under the Digital Health Incentive Scheme

   • Payors: Insurance companies will be able to better structure coverage schemes with the additional information

   • Pharma / Biotechs: Will be able to better understand diseases and expedite drug development

9. Globalizing Ayurveda: I had my very first sip of matcha back in 2016 and in 2017, I predicted the golden turmeric latte. But jokes aside, ayurvedic brands that can effectively communicate and adapt these ancient practices into accessible, appealing formats - like jeera activated water and ashwagandha energy bars - stand to benefit from an increasingly health conscious generation. A fantastic example of this is probably Organic India, which has successfully marketed Tulsi (Holy Basil) as a wellness tea globally. By emphasizing the holistic benefits of Tulsi in stress relief and immunity boosting, they captured significant market share and can be found on the shelves of health food giants like Whole Foods and Trader Joe’s.

10. New Wave of Healthcare Marketing: The same tips and tricks that work for marketing in other industries don’t work in healthcare. We think this will be the strongest second-order effect that comes into play. There’s a reason you don’t see many ads for hospitals or practitioners and marketers who can creatively exploit this will have an advantage. Meta is making some big changes around healthcare advertising that will make it very difficult to actually target patients and optimize conversion funnels. It’s likely that LinkedIn and Google will follow suit. This shift requires a more nuanced approach, focusing on building trust through informative content and leveraging platforms that allow for direct interaction and community support. Effective healthcare marketing now means creating a dialogue with consumers, offering them value beyond simple product promotion, and establishing a trusted relationship that empowers patients and providers alike.

    And that’s a wrap - we hoped you enjoyed reading our takes. We’ll do a quick revisit end of year and comment on how true they turned out to be. If any of these spaces excite you or you’d like to spar, feel free to write to us!